據海灣新聞網2023年7月4日迪拜/倫敦報道，歐佩克+是一個由石油輸出國組織（歐佩克）和包括產能大國在內的非歐佩克產油國組成的集團，其原油產量占世界原油總產量的40%左右，自去年11月以來，面對油價低迷，歐佩克+一直在削減原油產量。
歐佩克成員國沙特阿拉伯和產能大國周一進一步削減原油供應以推高油價。這兩個國家是世界上最大的原油出口國。然而，此舉只是短暫提振了市場。
這兩次減產都是在4月份最初引入的更廣泛的歐佩克+減產協議的基礎上進行的，該協議將限制供應持續到2024年，并將宣布的原油日總產量減少500萬桶以上，約占全球原油總產量的5%。4月份的意外宣布減產加深了去年11月份推出的減產措施，并在隨后的日子里推動油價每桶上漲約9美元，至每桶87美元以上。
【資料圖】
但此后基準原油價格回吐了這些漲幅，7月4日布倫特原油期貨交易價格略低于每桶76美元。
歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)分析師認為，進一步減產“將無助于改變市場的看跌情緒，目前市場對今年下半年原油需求增長前景感到悲觀”。
以下是歐佩克+減產未能顯著提振油價的4個主要原因：
1. 對需求疲軟的擔憂
來自亞洲的數據引發了人們的擔憂，即世界第二大原油消費國從疫情封鎖中復蘇的速度正在減緩。
德國商業銀行分析師卡斯滕·弗里奇說：“盡管該國原油需求的數據證明是強勁的，但在取消社交限制后，該國的經濟復蘇明顯比預期的要緩慢。”
弗里奇表示，該國原油需求的飆升在很大程度上是去年需求下降后的一種追趕效應，而這種增長勢頭可能會大幅放緩。
2. 更高的利率
更令人擔憂的是，包括美聯儲（FED）在內的主要央行警告稱，為了對抗頑固的高通脹，可能會進一步加息。
更高的利率會侵蝕消費者的可支配收入，并可能導致駕車和旅行支出減少，從而限制原油需求。
更高的利率還推高了制造商的成本，數據顯示制造行業復蘇正在放緩。
石油經紀商PVM分析師Tamas Varga表示：“沒有任何拐彎抹角，全球各地的工廠都在苦苦掙扎，日本、歐元區、英國和美國的制造業萎縮，而制造業也在6月放緩。”
這一切都意味著，投資者并不認同今年下半年全球原油需求將強勁反彈的觀點。
有預測稱，大量原油將需要使用之前的庫存以滿足供應需求，這一預測尤其令人懷疑。
“國際能源署(IEA)和石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)均繼續預測全球原油日產量將增加200萬桶，但隨著時間的推移，這些預測的可信度正在下降，市場需要一些時間才能出現有意義的調整。”歐亞集團表示。
3. 美國產量增加
美國產量增速快于預期，也助長了市場對油價上漲的悲觀情緒。
EIA預計，今年美國原油日產量將增加72萬桶達到1261萬桶，高于此前該機構預測的日增64萬桶。
相比之下，2018年美國的原油日產量約為1000萬桶。
4. 看漲程度低
2020年，沙特能源大臣薩勒曼警告交易商不要在石油市場上大舉押注，稱那些押注油價的人將“像在地獄一樣痛苦”。
在6月4日歐佩克+會議之前，薩勒曼再次發出警告，告訴投機者“小心”，許多市場觀察人士和投資者將其解讀為歐佩克+可能考慮進一步減產，以懲罰那些押注油價下跌的人。
然而，投資者仍在削減多頭頭寸。
根據盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)分析師Ole Hansen所言，最新數據顯示，WTI和布倫特原油期貨的多頭頭寸減少了6.6萬份，目前為23.1萬份合同。
李峻 譯自 海灣新聞網
原文如下：
Why OPEC+ oil supply cuts are failing to boost oil prices
Dubai/London: OPEC+, a group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including the bigger producer that pumps around 40 per cent of the world’s crude, has been cutting oil output since November in the face of flagging prices.
Members Saudi Arabia and the bigger producer, the world’s biggest oil exporters, deepened oil supply cuts on Monday in an effort to send prices higher. Yet the move only briefly lifted the market.
Both cuts came in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 initially introduced in April, and take total output reductions announced to over five million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 per cent of global oil output.
The surprise April announcement deepened production cuts introduced in November, and helped to raise prices by about $9 a barrel to above $87 per barrel in the days that followed.
But benchmark crude prices have shed those gains since, with Brent futures on Tuesday trading at just under $76 per barrel.
The additional cuts, Eurasia Group analysts argue, “will do little to shift bearish sentiment in a market that is consumed with pessimism about the prospects for oil demand growth in the second half of the year”.
Here are the main reasons why OPEC+ output cuts are failing to significantly lift oil prices:
1. Concerns about weak demand
Data from Aisa has sparked fears that the economic recovery from coronavirus lockdowns in the world’s second-largest oil consumer is losing steam.
“The economic recovery in Asia following the lifting of coronavirus restrictions has been noticeably more sluggish than anticipated, even though the data for oil demand proved robust,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
He said the jump in this area oil demand was largely a catch-up effect after it fell last year, and that this growth momentum was likely to slow considerably.
2. Higher interest rates
Adding to worries, leading central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, are warning more interest rates hikes could be on the horizon to fight stubbornly high inflation.
Higher interest rates eat into consumers’ disposable income and could translate into less spending on driving and travelling, limiting oil demand.
They also drive up costs for manufacturers, and data suggests a slowdown in the sector is happening.
“There is no beating around the bush, factories are struggling across the globe as the sector shrank in Japan, the euro zone, the UK and the US whilst slowed last month,” PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.
This all means investors are not buying into the idea that the second half of 2023 will see a strong rebound in oil demand.
There are doubts in particular over forecasts that significant quantities of oil will need to be taken out of storage for supply to meet demand.
“With both the International Energy Agency and OPEC continuing to forecast draws of about 2 million bpd ... the credibility of these forecasts is diminishing over time, and markets will take some convincing for a meaningful correction to occur,” Eurasia says.
3. US output rising
Faster than expected growth in US output has also been contributing to market pessimism about oil price gains.
The Energy Information Administration projects US crude oil production will climb by 720,000 bpd to 12.61 million bpd this year, above a prior forecast increase of 640,000 bpd.
This compares with around 10 million bpd as recently as 2018.
4. Less bullish
In 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying those who gamble on the oil price would be “ouching like hell”.
He repeated his warning ahead of the June 4 OPEC+ meeting, telling speculators to “watch out”, which many market watchers and investors interpreted as a signal OPEC+ could consider further output cuts to punish those betting on lower prices.
Yet investors continue to pare back long positions.
The latest data show the combined long position in WTI and Brent futures fell by 66,000 contracts to 231,000 ,” according to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
